Pro-Laftagareen Forces Seize Key Towns Surrounding Baidoa in Southern Somalia

Between October 8 and October 17, 2026, heavily armed forces loyal to ousted South West State President Abdiaziz Hassan Mohamed, known as Laftagareen, captured five strategic towns in southern Somalia's Bay region. The rapid territorial offensive effectively encircled the regional administrative capital of Baidoa, leaving the federally backed local government and its allies without control over the majority of the state's district centers.

The captured towns comprise Qansaxdheere, Buurhakaba, Berdale, Diinsoor, and Awdiinle, the latter located roughly 30 kilometers (18 miles) from Baidoa. Although heavy fighting occurred during the assault on Buurhakaba, causing government troops to withdraw after being attacked from multiple directions, most other district takeovers were bloodless. In Berdale, heavily armed regional Darawiish forces loyal to Laftagareen arrived on motorcycles and established control without opposition. Fleeing government officials sought refuge at a nearby African Union base, where Ethiopian peacekeepers remained inside their installation and refrained from intervening in the takeover.

Following the advances, the federally backed South West State administration, led by Sheikh Aden Mohamed Nur, launched preparations to recapture the lost territory. On October 18, South West Information Minister Nur Sidow Baba and Security Minister Isaaq Mohamed Isaaq announced a coordinated military counteroffensive involving federal troops and regional forces, identifying Buurhakaba on the critical supply route to Mogadishu as the primary initial objective. Concurrently, federal House of the People Speaker Abdulkadir Mohamed Nur met with regional lawmakers in Baidoa to coordinate defense measures and review security operations.

The military crisis has deepened political divisions, accompanied by severe accusations of terror ties. On October 13, Somalia's counter-terrorism financing committee placed Laftagareen and nine associates on a targeted financial sanctions list over alleged financial support for Al-Shabaab. Government allies, including former regional minister Hassan Hussein Eelay, accused Laftagareen's forces of joining forces with the insurgent group. Laftagareen's leadership praised its troops for liberating the four districts and strongly denied any Al-Shabaab collaboration, maintaining that the military operations were solely intended to restore regional authority and political stability.

The current crisis stems from a long-standing power dispute between Somalia's federal government in Mogadishu and regional state leaders over political autonomy and security governance. On March 30, 2026, federal military forces entered Baidoa and forcibly removed South West State President Abdiaziz Hassan Mohamed Laftagareen from office. Although Laftagareen initially announced his resignation, his loyalist forces subsequently rejected the legitimacy of the replacement administration led by Sheikh Aden Mohamed Nur and initiated repeated armed attempts to reclaim the regional capital.

South West State, comprising the Bay, Bakool, and Lower Shabelle regions, holds immense strategic and economic significance for Somalia. Baidoa serves as a major humanitarian logistics hub hosting hundreds of thousands of civilians displaced by ongoing conflict and severe drought. Furthermore, key transit corridors such as the highway running through Buurhakaba serve as vital economic links between Baidoa and Mogadishu. The internal military rift among government-aligned Darawiish forces weakens defense lines against the Islamist insurgent group Al-Shabaab, which continues to control extensive rural territory across southern Somalia.